4Game

Hello, IronWilly here!

Today I became interested in a question of "USED" gear in Tarkov. Let's say you get into a firefight and kill the PMC in question. You loot his body and recover Condor ballistic glasses that are at 23/25 (meaning that one of your shots ricocheted off them). You successfully extract and then go through your spoils. You see the Condors and think, "Hrmm… almost as good as new…I'll continue to use them!" HOWEVER….Should you??

Monty Hall was the game show host of Let's Make a Deal and in this show a conundrum was created called the Monty Hall Problem. In this problem a contestant had 3 doors which to pick one. Behind 1 door was a brand new car, and behind the other two were leashed goats. The contestant would make his/her choice and Monty would then reveal a goat behind one of the two remaining doors. He would then ask the contestant if they wanted to STAY with their decision or SWITCH to the other door. It was proven through mathematics and logic that if the contestant SWITCHED…they now had a 66% (roughly) to win the new car. If they STAYED with the door they chose… they had a 33% chance of winning the car.

How does this relate to Tarkov you might ask? Let me show you….

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https://imgur.com/a/0VcVvtF

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In this image, you can see that Condor's (tested by Gigabeef) have a 67% chance to ricochet rounds. In this example, the Monty Hall problem is effectively "reversed." The shooter reveals one of the 2/3 ricochet chances, and then you get the glasses and have to decide…

1. "Do I keep these and wear them?"
2. "Do I change and use a new pair?"

Given the Monty Hall dilemma, the best choice is to sell them and get a new pair. Why? Because if you stay with those glasses that have had a ricochet revealed, then you have a 1 in 3 chance to get another ricochet. HOWEVER, if you buy new Condor's and wear them, you now have a 2 in 3 chance to get a ricochet.

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I would LOVE to hear your thoughts on this! 😛

Iron Will