4Game

tl;dr: just some reasonably positive thoughts about why all isn't gloom and doom and you can safely keep playing if you enjoy the game.

Hey,

I got into Gwent a few months ago, under the assumption that although player numbers were evidently declining, CDPR would definitely not abandon this game now that new Witcher games had been announced. All they had to do was holding until their next AAA Witcher brings the hype back to Gwent. Now would be the worst time to drop the ball, right? Well, I was evidently proven wrong. And given how much I was into Gwent back in November, the announcement was truly disheartening, and killed my motivation to play.

I guess, though, that the hit was proportional to my emotional investment in the game. I've tried multiple CCGs and of all them, Gwent clicked the most with me. Unique mechanics, a relatively diverse meta (people complain, but have they played HS or MtGA?), unique atmosphere, outstanding art, great lore… I was thrilled when I got to Pro the first time, and felt ready to try again every month. And then boom, the game gets shelved, streamers leave, a feeling of gloom and doom sets in. What a shock.

But, now, for some reason, I'm getting over it and feeling the itching to play again. Though not as much as before, but still. I had lost all interest in the meta, deckbuilding or theorycrafting, but now it's back. Even though Thea left, KG left, Spyro left and others probably too.

What happened? To some extent, I've simply "absorbed" and processed the bad news. But I think I've also come to the realization that, as more veteran players have noted, the game wasn't headed in a healthy direction anyway. Too many insane point swings. If you're familiar with MtG terminology, imagine the game was designed for Timmy and Timmy only. That's the impression I got from the recent cards. I didn't play before that era, but I did start with watching Spyro's educational playlists dating from a few years back (the game may have changed a lot, but the core concepts haven't) and the difference with today is plain obvious. Small mistakes and optimizations mattered way more, the "battle of wits" looked more intense. Nowadays, you chiefly wants to protect your big plays and block the opponent's. Besides, powercreep is a real thing and a good chunk of the card pool is unplayable. I don't expect this trend to end this year, as the same people will be designing the new cards.

Gwentfinity and community balance, however, may prove an opportunity to finally address those issues, at least to some extent. We have no idea how it will play out, but I'm somewhat optimistic. At least, I don't think it'll be a complete disaster and again, the direction of recent card drops wasn't ideal.

Besides, the way the sunsetting announcement has been made is as elegant as it could have been. Not only do they give us a 1-year advance notice instead of catching everyone off-guard, but they also acknowledge having run out of ideas. And I believe and respect that. Most of the Witcher lore has been covered already, the game is very rich, there are lots of mechanics and archetypes… They're just not balanced right now. A card pool in the 1500 or so is nothing to sneer at, nothing at all.

In fact, this card pool is large enough that the game could still be periodically refreshed, just by virtue of revamping powercrept cards and archetypes. That is, until we reach perfect balance of every archetype and leader ability, but will we ever? I doubt so, and if we come close it'll have been an unprecedented success in game-design. But, nonetheless, we can work towards it. And I prefer that over the current Yu-Gi-Oh-style direction of bandaging powercreep with additional layers of powercreep.

So, overall, I'm not worried about the absence of new content. I believe we've enough to work with, it's better to consolidate rather than to overexpand, think Augustus Caesar rather than Napoleon. I'm not worried much either about Gwent being outright shutdown in the near future. A server doesn't cost much and there are many examples of games that remained playable online years after the last patch, and long after they stopped contributing significantly to anyone's bottom line.

What I'm most worried about is the vicious spiral of a shrinking community causing remaining content creators to leave causing the community to shrink even further. This is a real risk and, in fact, an eventuality, though the question is, how long before thermal entropic death? I have no certain answer but I believe the game still has at least a few years before we need to queue for 5 minutes before finding an opponent. Many old RTS from the early 00's kept a rather lively community for a long time, after all.

Besides, the community shrinking down to a core of enthusiasts while losing its esport aspect may not be entirely a bad thing. The most competition-oriented try-harders will probably migrate to some other game, and this should leave the game with a more diverse and innovative meta. Why would you play the same deck every day and grind your way up the ladder, when you already own most of the cards and there are no longer any real stakes associated with reaching Pro? You won't even need the RPs anymore.

Some final thoughts… A part of me refuses to admit that CDPR may not include Gwent in the upcoming Witcher games. Why would they develop a new mini-game, when they've already invested so much in Gwent? It's iconic (under its W3 form) and now everything is there, the code, the art, the voiceovers… everything – and it's so professional-looking. All they got to do is pulling together one or two easy to learn and representative decks for each faction, and let the player win new cards to upgrade those starting decks. Another part of me has to acknowledge that they may abandon Gwent for good, not even including in the next games.

If they do include it – which is the best case scenario – we may see a return of interest to the game, with a new influx of newbies after a couple years of veterans gwenting on their own. The competitive side is probably dead for good: its difficult to regain goodwill that has been lost, and who would come back to streaming a game that has died once and may not have a future? Even if esport returns, getting content creators and high-level players to return will be very challenging. However, Gwent may survive for a few additional years as a sort of "hobby game", with a relatively relaxed atmosphere, and some new blood from new players with each subsequent main Witcher release (the next games are planned over a 6-year span). It'll be a niche game and (probably) no one will make a living out of Gwent alone, but it'll be there nonetheless, and there'll be room for decently-sized channels. More like side-jobs for their owners, but that's better than nothing.

Alright, I believe I'm done. Thanks for reading! And I guess I'm finally buying that premium journey I planned to get before the sunsetting announcement, that I didn't buy because I lost the drive to play, but that may still accompany me along months of gwenty entertainment. I won't be trying hard, but I'll be playing at least once a week to advance the journey.