4Game

So I made post on April 1st (serious post on the 1st ik not the best choice) recently warning the community not to buy GPUs because they were overpriced relative to potential wipe proximity, the likelihood of either BSG nerfing or bitcoin outright crashing, and just how monetarily it wasn't worth it. That post got a bunch of negative comments and after a bunch of upvotes was eventually downvoted to just 0. So I'm going to gloat real quick.

HA HA HA AHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAAHAAHAHAHAHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!

*Clears throat* Okay, now that that's over with lets talk about GPU prices on the Flea Market. As I speak, Bitcoins sell for, approx, 458k. On the 8th, the day of the nerf and at the height of Bitcoins value, it was at 858k (approx obv). That is about a 47% decrease in the value of Bitcoin in 8 DAYS. It'll probably continue to plummet, if anything. How's the GPU market done?

Well, on the 8th GPUs went for 1.75 mil on average (if you bought smart. Don't be comin at me with "I bought a GPU at 2 mil!" Grats, you got ripped off). Today they're going for 1.1 mil at the cheapest, or a 38% decrease in value.

Additionally, the time to make Bitcoin went up by 7 hours, which further decreases the value of the Bitcoin farm itself and, accordingly, the GPU.

On the face of it we can just say "Hey, Bitcoin is less valuable overall due to the sale price decrease and the time to make going up significantly." But it gets worse.

See, the people buying the GPUs are the people who need them for their Bitcoin farm, so they haven't completed it as of yet. So, ostensibly, they were buying GPUs at their peak price. In that post I linked I said that if Bitcoin went down by 300k and you finished your bitcoin on the DAY OF THAT POST it would take 88 days just the recoup the cost of the GPUs you bought. Now? Well the math gets complicated and messy depending on how many GPUs you bought prior to their cost reduction and your bitcoin generation, etc., but essentially that number is going up multiplicatively. If Bitcoin continues its downward trend towards 183k, which there's no reason to assume it won't, you could be up to 6 MONTHS before you see a return in profit.

But let me hit you with another factoid that is just really fascinating. Bitcoin, prior to the massive inflation it received, peaked at 183k. At that time GPUs 3 months into the wipe went for 250k. That means that the market, at its most stable, perceived GPUs to be worth 1.27 Bitcoins. That's it. Which means, if we were to use that comparison to these Bitcoins and GPUs would be worth about 580k. This also means that you're paying a whole extra bitcoin more than you would have for GPUs last wipe.

TL;DR? Stop buying GPUs because they're overpriced. Just wait, they will plummet, and if you stop buying them they'll plummet a LOT faster.