4Game

I have now ran 50, full sprint runs into Shoreline looking for the goon squad. I am talking 7 minute raids of full sprinting directly to the weather station to check for the goon squad and leaving immediately after. The "Rogue Bosses" have not spawned once. We know from https://tarkov-changes.com/changes that on August 8th BSG changed the "BossChance" variable for "locations-Shoreline-BossLocationSpawn-Rogue Bosses-BossChance" from 0.12 to 0.15. The EFT wiki has taken this number to represent the percent chance of the bosses spawning.

The statistical odds of an 85% chance occurring 50 times in a row is (0.85^50)*100 = 0.03%. So at this point I have to ask, are we ignorant of what the "boss chance" variable actually means or is BSG incompetent and this variable is not functioning as intended? Or are there other unknown factors at play?

I have seen several posts on this subreddit discussing the lack of their appearance but I do not believe I have seen any solutions that would attribute to this observed truth. I recall reading that BSG took away Reshala's spawn location at stronghold because the bosses would fight each other. This implies that the bosses spawn independently of each other and that this would not negatively effect spawn rates. I also play with several US servers selected that are observably populated. Meaning my servers should not be attributing to their spawn rates. I play during daytime (0600-1800) and both the wiki and the eft changes website do not differentiate or mention specific times for the bosses to spawn.

What could be causing the lack of spawning for the goon squad? Is there some factor that I am unaware of? Does anyone have any tips that could help discover the conditions at which they spawn?

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EDIT: I have discovered that there was an unknown factor at play. The goon squad only spawns on one out of the four maps at any given time. It is currently unknown how the game choses which map the goons are currently spawning on. A few twitch streamers have created a bot that allows (trusted) community members to report which map they are currently spawning on. I found that bot in use at https://www.twitch.tv/axel_tv with the command !goons. In three attempts to find the goon squad on the map the bot claimed they were reported on I found them. I highly encourage people to check out this tool he is a part of as they truly have a 0% chance on any of the other 3 maps at any given time.