I made a calculation:

On the Eu and Ru Server together there were 154.000.000.000 randoms played.

I devided this number by 40. So there were 3.850.000.000 attempts of winning 40 Games in a row.

With an average winrate of 0,5% (actually its lower beacause of drwas but I neglect this) you have a chance of 0,5^40 winning 40 games in a row. (0,5^40 = 0,000.000.000.000.9)

Now I multiplied the two numbers because it was tried 3.850.000.000 times with a chance of 0,5^40 to win the 40 games in a row.

3.850.000.000*0,5^40 ≈ 0,004

0,004 < 1 so its very unlikely someone won 40 games in a row.

We can actually use the formula games played divided by the games in a row attemptet to win multiplied by the chance winning these games in a row.

It would look like this: 154.000.000.000/x*0,5^x

Now we can insert Numbers for x and calculate it.

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I found that with x=32 we are really close to 1:

154.000.000.000 / 32 * 0,5^32 ≈ 1,11

Following my calculations its unlikely someone won more than 32 games in a row.

But is this realistic?

What do you guys think about it?

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I have found the statisics of randoms played on https://wot-news.com/stat/server/ru/norm/en