TL:DR: BSG's official concurrent player count & ban wave figures suggest that 23.14% of raids from the week prior had one or more cheaters in them

With BSG publishing so many ban wave counts lately, I found myself wondering what these numbers actually mean. "What does BSG banning X amount of players say about how many cheaters were in my raids?" As your math teacher once said, "given 10 trials and a ~2.6% chance to succeed, what are the odds you will succeed one or more times?" The answer is just about 23%, but unlike your professor, I'll show my work:

1. Nikita said on his AMA that the average player count was about 70-120k but that the game had "hundreds of thousands" of daily logins. (source 1) In the interest of actually measuring the # of players in raids rather than the # of people collecting their BTC and buying ammo/keycards on trader resets, I will use the concurrent player count, as that more directly represents the number of players online when the cheaters are queing for raids, and thus your odds of them being in your raids. Because cheaters can't play 24/7, I'll apply a (10/24) coefficient to their portion of the population.
2. Last week BSG posted on twitter they'd banned 5.7k players during that week. Assuming BSG banned them in a wave, as they have traditionally done, this means all 5.7k played last week.
3. Asides from Factory (4-6) and Streets (15-17), every map in EFT has roughly 10 players.

Players in raids = (4 * 70,000 (presumably weekday highs) + 3 * 120,000 (presumably weekend highs)) / 7 = 91,430 concurrent players on an average day

Cheaters in raid last week = Cheaters banned last week * (10 hours / 24 hours per day) = 5,700 * 10 / 24 = 2,375 cheaters online at any given point in the day

Chances of any given player in a raid to be a cheater = Cir / pir = 2,375 / 91,430 = 2.6%

Chances that one or more players in each of your raids that week were banned for cheating = 1- P(0) = 1 – ((n!/(n-x)!)*px*qn-x) = 1 – (0.7686) = 23.14%

^{{n=10 # of players per raid, x=0 cheaters, P = % of being a cheater, Q = % of being legit}}

Source: https://www.reddit.com/r/EscapefromTarkov/comments/11exyz4/ask_a_questions_here/

Nikita is u/ trainfender, comment in question is right at the top of the thread.

^{-I typed this up waiting for my scav cooldown. intel 2, rep is 2.2 yet I had time to write this between 6 raids. Pls add GPSa to moonshine/intel scav case. I'm not making a habit of doing this for every future ban wave tweet. I showed my work so you can change the numbers and check for yourself when that happens!}

^{-Can we get an analysis flair?}