For all of you who have rolled the exact legendary skin that you wanted, consider yourself very lucky.

There's 13 characters, each one has roughly 10 legendary items if we’re accounting for everything you can get in an Apex Pack which is banner frames, finishers, and skins. That’s about 113 right there. Then there's 23 weapons with an average of 4 legendary skins each, which is 92, totaling up to 205 including the legendaries for legends. Altogether, this gives up you about a 0.5% chance to get that specific legendary that you wanted. That is, if you get a legendary in the first place. We have to account for the fact that each apex pack has only a 7% chance to have a legendary. If I've done my math correctly, that gives you a 0.035% chance of getting that specific skin, finisher, or whatever else you wanted in an an apex pack. That means that in order to bring that chance up to just 35%, you would have to get almost 1,000 apex packs, which is ludicrous. Granted, you’d have gotten enough crafting materials to craft the skin that you wanted multiple times over, but my point still stands. If you got the skin that you wanted, consider yourself very lucky.

I’ve honestly been winging it for this entire thing. I’ve accounted for everything I could think of but if I did some math wrong please let me know so I don’t make the same mistake in future. This was a fun little project I took on to challenge my brain, and I wanted to share it with some people. I thought it up after exactly this happened to me with Mirage’s ghost machine. I’d been saving for it since I began playing about a month and a half ago. I got it from an apex pack a few days ago. I wanted to look into it and see just how lucky I really was.

Thank you for your time. Have yourself a nice night.