Strategic guessing

Not sure if this has been talked about before, but I see this mistake constantly in public 2 impostor lobbies. There are times where it is necessary to take a shot and just vote someone out, even if you don't know who it is. The most common example of this is when there are 6 total people left, 4 being crew and 2 being an impostor. In this case, you have to vote someone out, or else you will lose, as the impostors can just kill one person each at the same time and win. Logically, you might as well try to vote someone out because if you get an impostor (2/5 chance, or 40%, since you don't include yourself in the denominator bc you know you aren't impostor… even better if you've seen people do visual tasks, boosts your odds dramatically) out it boosts your odds of winning and if you are wrong, well, you would have lost either way.

How to present this information? I usually just explain myself and say that we need to vote someone out, and if we don't we will lose. Sometimes they think that you are the impostor for saying that, but usually I can call off the heat by telling them that it is in the impostors' best interest to skip in those situations since they can win by not voting at all. Sometimes they still vote you off but at least they tried to vote someone off instead of doing nothing. This strategy is important to use anytime there is an X number of impostors and 2X number of crewmates remaining since in those cases the impostor(s) only need one kill each to win. If you're still not convinced just think of it this way- everyone always takes a guess when there are 3 people left- 6 people left with 2 impostors remaining is the same situation, just with the population sizes being doubled… this is even more imperative when there are 5 total remaining and 2 impostors.

Follow up tips-

  1. The person(s) adamantly lobbying to skip after you say that you guys need to vote someone out is/are highly likely to be the impostor(s), in my experience.
  2. If you don't want to go the explanation and/or don't want to bother trying to convince people of the power of statistics/strategy, then just say you saw someone vent and they will probably be voted out. Just take your best guess using any information you've gathered such as seeing people do visual tasks.
  3. This one is a bit more situational but in those instances when there are 4 people left and you're unsure of who the last impostor is, but you know of at least one good person, stick with that person. If it has been a while since you guys have seen the other 2 remaining players, go press the emergency button and call a meeting. This is to see if either of the other 2 players have been killed- if one has, then you know who the impostor is since you know that you and your buddy are both good. I included this in a guide for guessing because in a way you are guessing- you're guessing that someone has been killed so you press the button to check without having to find the body and risk being killed yourself.

Hope these tips help, I just get frustrated in some of these situations where it's obvious that the crew needs to take a chance in order to have the possibility to win and the replies are "we have no evidence idiot stfu"… at least you get the sweet satisfaction of watching the impostors instantly sabotage and kill 2 people to win after that! Basically, don't be that person- give yourself and your teammates a chance to win by knowing when it is necessary to take a gamble and guess. Again, if you don't want to mess with convincing people to take a logical guess, just take the matters into your own hands and say X person vented- that usually works just as well or better, but might get you flamed if you're wrong and accused of cheating if you're right.


leave a comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *