Disclaimer: I've not been in the lore very long and I'm also not aware as to whether this has been discussed before. If I'm missing something or I'm accidentally copy/pasting another discussion, don't…eat me.
A short time ago, a friend of mine who was doing a natsim RP with me and a group of others revealed a storyline he'd been working on wherein the Admiralty of his nation had killed off the official leader and hermetically sealed his office with his dead (but well-preserved) body inside. The idea was that while the Chancellor was dead, he could ostensibly be revealed to the public as alive while the Admiralty and the rest of the military ran the nation from behind the scenes, duping the public.
It struck me reading the Galnet post Duvals Gather to Celebrate New Year (01 Jan, 3308, ) how similar the two stories appeared. When journalist Solomon Helios asks;
“But what of the current Emperor? Unlike Hadrian’s family, Arissa Lavigny-Duval remains in seclusion and only communicates remotely with the Senate. Now that the terrorists have been quelled, surely the time has come for Her Imperial Majesty to reappear before her loyal subjects?”,
it felt as though the article was practically begging somebody to ask, 'well, where's Arissa?' and I couldn't help but see the similarity between the concept of the afore-mentioned Admiralty running the nation under a ostensibly-alive-realistically-dead leader to the Imperial Senate doing the same thing.
My thoughts were compounded when I read Imperial Intelligence Denies NMLA Connection (07 Jan, 3308, ), wherein Chancellor Blaine gives this statement in response to calls for Arissa to appear (after a full year of unseen seclusion);
“Her Majesty was placed under secure protection in early 3307 after several failed assassination attempts by the NMLA. She has been communicating remotely with the Senate on all official business, but does plan to return to Capitol very soon.”
It just feels so noncommittal, so politicky, that I found myself asking the question, 'what if the NMLA was actually successful in assassinating the Emperor?', leading me to this conclusion; at the time of the NMLA assassination attempts, Hadrian was still an outlaw out of the line of succession and Aisling remains unwed. The death of Arissa would leave a succession crisis that it would be in the best interest of the Senate to avoid.
It therefore seems logical (or at least possible) to me that Emperor Arissa Lavigny-Duval was assassinated by the NMLA sometime in early 3307, leading the Imperial Senate (or elements of it) to cover up her death as protective custody while the search for an heir to her throne was privately conducted.
Tl;dr: Arissa Lavigny-Duval was killed by the NMLA and the death was covered up due to the fact that the two primary heirs weren't suitable; Aisling Duval remains unwed and Hadrian Duval was an outlaw at the time.
Source: https://www.reddit.com/r/EliteDangerous/comments/s41ypl/opinion_arissa_lavignyduval_is_dead/
