The most obvious problem for the ED player base right now is how new content has been severely below expectations since the release of ODY. And it's been many months during which Fdev is frantically trying to patch things up and all other new content has been stalled. This leads to a lot of anxious players both with and without ODY who all have expectations underfulfilled. However if we are to continue on this path of putting bandaids on huge wounds I'm afraid the only future I can see is eventually Fdev decides this project is losing too much money and they discontinue the game completely.
If Fdev wants to pull ED out of this tailspin, they would have to make some really decisive changes to their plans really soon, making new plans to address the core issue, accompanied with some excellent PR to (re)set player expectations.
The core issue as I see it is that Fdev is trying to do too much with too little resources. And the best example of this is, well, the ODY expansion. When I first heard about ODY I was in disbelief, "How could you possibly create a completely new set of game mechanics, and sell it for $39.99?" I thought. Unfortunately it turns out I was correct, and ODY has been a disaster since launch. The worst part is this screw-up is dragging everything else down with it: future content, base game fixes, and the elephant in the room — discontinued PS version. Oh did I say this was the worst part? It isn't. The way Fdev is handling the situation right now is NOT going to fix the problem. All these emergency updates and patches, even sacrificing the entire PS development for the foreseeable future, are but bandaids on top of bandaids. It is not nearly enough to fill the huge crater of empty expectations caused by ODY.
To give you guys a sense of the expectation created for ODY and the the scale of work required to fill that, think back on your first experience of playing ED as a game. Recall how amazed you were by the visuals, the sounds, the interactions, and the variety of things you could do. Imagine how much work had gone into building all of this from scratch. Then look at the idea of ODY, to add the entire (base) system for disembarkation — it is on the same scale as the ED base game! You would need the same amount of visuals, new sounds, new NPC behaviors and interactions, and roughly the same variety of things to do, otherwise the whole thing just feels underwhelming. Very little of these things can be inherited or carried over from the base game, meaning you're basically rebuilding the entire world of ED from scratch, from the perspective of a character instead of from a ship. The very concept of ODY, even in its most basic stripped down form, has the scale of a full standalone game. It simply is not practical to use existing resources (and time) to reach that level of completion. To try and do so much with the resources of a DLC expansion is a terrible business decision and why it is doomed from the start.
A good way they could have done ODY (and IMO how they should have done it) is to release ODY as a full standalone game. Give it a dedicated, full-sized dev team, a full development cycle, full fundraising, full budget, and full price. ODY would be set in the same universe, interact with the same BGS, and players would be able to purchase and play it as its own game. Then, they would open up the cross-over feature, where players who own both ED and ODY would be able to switch between ship and on-foot, getting access to both worlds in the same game instance. At the same time, ED would still be receiving updates while ODY is under development, and after ODY release, there would be both separate updates and joint updates between the two games.
Following from this idea, I do believe there IS a way for ED (and ODY) to recover. As someone who's worked in software development, I know that it is super common for software teams underestimate the workload and overcommit. Even the most experienced software designers can severely underestimate the size of the project. The ODY screw-up is worse than usual, but by no means a death sentence. One way that I could think of is to do a reset and bring things back on track:
- Hire some Elite or Dangerous PR specialists, and general marketing experts
- Stop the bleeding — Admit that they botched the ODY development, and discontinue its development as a DLC. They will undoubtedly feel some backlash, but it was going to come sooner or later anyways. This is where they will need those Dangerous PR people as good PR management can minimize damage. Ultimately though there's no easy way to do this.
- Reboot ODY — relaunch as a full installment, stand-alone game. Will be harder than usual which is why they need those marketing experts. Recommend giving existing ODY owners a discount or some sort of bonus for the eventual final product.
- Fresh blood — ED updates should resume as quickly as possible. Can start with the low-hanging fruits that require minimal work, add content based on existing ones. New ships, new components, new planet features, new landable planet types, new missions, new resources, new Xeno lore and interactions, new bugs to shoot at etc… A lot of existing content could also be fleshed out and expanded upon with relative ease, such as more station types, more carrier types, more SRV multicrew options etc. This will give the exiting player base something to look forward to thus retaining more players. The new content may have to be pay-walled at least at the start, which also gives fresh cash flow to keep contents coming. I know as a player it sucks to have to pay for minor DLC's but this whole situation sucks and it sucks for everyone, no one is immune. ED would still be in a better place compared to most cash cow games out there.
- Content previews — developments in the reboot can bleed over to ED as a way to both repay old dedicated players and to generate hype. Ship interiors, more concourses, more character customization, surface hover craft etc. could be introduced to ED before the reboot is fully released.
If done right, I do believe that ED and ODY can still be brought back on track, and the enthusiasm of the playerbase can be rekindled. Personally (and I think most would agree), I would much prefer that ED continues to grow and improve, because it adds value to my purchase, and it gives fresh enjoyable experiences at low or no cost. However if Fdev keeps their current course of cutting their own limbs to appease hunger, the lifeblood of this game will run dry very soon.
