I made an encounter probability of all of the spawns on Shoreline using the fabulous Mapgenie service. The pins with arrows represent spawns. Around each spawn, I drew a circle encompassing the radius that an average PMC can sprint in the first 30 seconds of a raid.
Where the circles overlap and the red is more intense, there is a higher risk of encountering another player. Think of like a Venn diagram. Lots of circles overlapping means you're probably going to find someone there. If you're dying frequently and you don't know where the badmens are, try to plan your pathing into the lighter, less trafficked areas where the circles don't overlap. Once you're in a less-trafficked area, . Conversely, if you're seeking PVP, try heading into the more saturated areas of the map.
There are a few caveats: this map does not show lines of sight, which can extend for several hundred meters past the edge of each circle. Just because you're not overlapping with another spawn doesn't mean you're safe. You should always be checking the possible locations of bad guys as you move through the map, especially during the beginning of a raid.
Caveat #2: This only shows the possible locations of enemy spawns. It does not show their probable location. I initially considered drawing out the pathing for each spawn and where they are most likely to go, but then realized that this could be misleading. I also considered making each circle a gradient, as most players tend to sprint in a straight line towards their goal in the first 30 seconds of a raid, but that is also misleading as it made some highly contested areas look relatively safe. A lot of the time, players will sprint for ten seconds to a good spot and then hold it for several minutes waiting for someone to walk by. However, with experience you should start to be able to suss out exactly where players are usually headed. On shoreline, all of the spawns on the top center of the map will push Resort. Road to Customs spawns are usually screwed and will head into the woods. CCP Temporary spawns will push towards pier and gas station while keeping a watchful eye on the weather station for the guy who spawned arch and is looking for clean snipes. The Village People will either stay in town and hit all the jackets, or they'll rush Sanitar. The Shreks who spawned in the swamp will usually push Cottages for Sanitar as well, but they'll do it from the forests on either side of the hay field. However, they could be anywhere.
I also only did the first 30 seconds because most players can't sprint for a full minute, at least not yet. The SJ6 stim considerably alters that dynamic and after a full minute, players could be almost anywhere on a map that only takes 3:45 to fully sprint the length of.
Some of the areas will appear more saturated as the spawns are stacked, but in my experience Tarkov won't use (for example) all five of those spawns on the Village side for five players. You'll be spread out over the map, and certainly some spawns are much more common than others. However, we're just considering the possibility here, and I can't ignore any spawns without being potentially misleading, so areas with high concentrations of spawns will just be considered a high probability area.
Here's hoping some of you newer players can use this info to survive a little more frequently and start thinking about where you spawn and what to do in the first 30 seconds of any raid. Good luck!
