Post-Thargoid Recovery State Research

Howdy, let me start with a quick introduction. I am CMDR Light027, a member of the management team for Operation Ida. We are the station repair specialists and are an independent collection of pilots from numerous groups and factions, to date we have 220 station repairs under our belts.

Getting to the point, with the shift in the way station repair works under the new Thargoid war, we have been focusing on learning the mechanics of the "Post-Thargoid Recovery" system state. So far we have primarily focused on the HIP 23617 system as it was the first to go into "recovery" state. Regarding the recovery state, it appears to last 4 weeks, comprised of 4×1 week "repair cycles", however unlike the Invasion and Alert states the system progress bar does NOT reset after each weekly cycle.

As we began tracking repairs and monitoring the progress bar for HIP 23716 we began to notice some strange behavior regarding timing of the bar visually increasing. On Thursday (Dec 22nd, 1 week into recovery at HIP 23716) an additional 8 systems went into recovery, we have noticed similar behavior on all of their progress bars as well.

Here is our hypothesis, evidence and theory, with an included link to our collected data.

Hypothesis:

  • The progress bar for Post-Thargoid Recovery is automatic. 
    • The system is designed with preset intervals of time so that the bar is filled by the end of the full 4-week timer. 
    • The speed at which the bar is filled is not impacted by the number of repair missions completed or supplies delivered.

Explanation for hypothesis:

  • 50 total "chevrons" in progress bar 
  • Total recovery timer: 4 weeks 
  • 4 * 7 days = 28 days 
  • 28 * 24 hours = 672 hours 
  • 672 / 50 chevrons = 13.44 hours per chevron

Evidence:*

  • Consistent period of time (≈13 hours) documented between chevron increases with <100 tons of mission cargo delivered.
  • Consistent period of time (≈13 hours) documented between chevron increases with >150,000 tons of mission cargo delivered.
  • Consistent period of time (≈13 hours) documented between chevron increases with >1,000,000 tons delivered and >2,800 repair missions completed since begining of recovery state.
  • Further evidence including observed progress bar increases compared to estimated timing of increases visible on the "Data" tab.
  • 8 additional recovery systems, added at the start of the second week, all progressing concurrently at the same rate of time.**

Theory:

  • A chevron should appear every 13.44 hours (13 hours, 26 minutes, and 24 seconds), regardless of level of work completed.

All data compiled from tracking done in HIP 23716. See the Data and Screenshots tabs on linked spreadsheet for further evidence.) 

*Timing may vary from math provided above due to initial progress bar on each system starting with 1 chevron instead of 0.)

Link to our spreadsheet will full data: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QykBh3UgezQmQOD3cYT2J8IygfezLjcFJWEH4Bb3CsI/edit?usp=sharing

The spreadsheet linked above contains a full chart of our observed increases in the progress bar at HIP 23716 compared to a full list of the estimated times for all previous and future increases. If you are skeptical please consider watching for one of the future changes yourself. (note there appears to be up to 5min of delay before the bar visually increases).

We would also like to stress to please not take this thread as a complaint, attack, or anything other than a direct release of information to the public. We feel researching and learning about how these new systems work is essential to humanity surviving this new conflict. Ultimately what this means for us at Operation Ida is we may need to adapt and transform into a hauling focused group as it appears repair and recovery is not currently impactful.

Thank you for reading, fly safe, and happy hauling.
o7
Operation Ida Management

https://preview.redd.it/pzboktesg38a1.png?width=168&format=png&auto=webp&s=363f46578c7805c5ae9d2d109693f1f5bbe06001

Source: https://www.reddit.com/r/EliteDangerous/comments/zv4ymb/postthargoid_recovery_state_research/

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