Fleet carrier fuel consumption is based on allocated capacity, including outstanding market orders, not used capacity. Column J shows my fuel consumption estimates based on used capacity. Column M shows my fuel consumption estimates based on allocated capacity. Column N shows my actual fuel consumption. My actual fuel consumption matches the estimates in column M, not J:
Edit: There's an open bug report about this issue:
If you own a fleet carrier, would you please reproduce this bug (click "View Reproduction Steps") and submit a note about your experience along with your game journal? The more people who confirm this bug, the greater the chance FDev will fix it.
Source: https://www.reddit.com/r/EliteDangerous/comments/ltsikw/psa_cancel_your_market_orders_before_you/